New Mexico Economic Forecasting (FOR-UNM)
The New Mexico Economic Forecast (FOR-UNM) has been produced by BBER for over 30 years. This service provides information and analysis of economic trends that businesses and government leaders in the Land of Enchantment need to identify opportunities, evaluate performance and develop budgets.
The forecast is used by the state government for revenue projections in setting the state budget. The forecast can also be useful to public and private organizations.
THE ECONOMETRIC MODEL: The FOR-UNM model is an employment/income regional model, consisting of 375 equations. About two-thirds of the equations are estimated using statistical regression methods, and the remaining third are identity equations.
Each estimated equation explains the historical, statistical relationship between a New Mexico economic variable, such as manufacturing employment, and one or more other constituents. These explanatory factors may be national economic variables like interest rates and/or a New Mexico specific variable such as state population. Through the specification of the model, national economic impacts as well as state-specific economic impacts are captured in the projection of the N.M. economy. Linking the state econometric model to national economic activity requires the availability of a forecast of the U.S. economy in order to project the state economy. FOR-UNM relies upon the national economic calculations of Global Insight, Inc., one of the largest and most reliable national economic forecast services. To reflect the structural differences between the economies of urban and rural New Mexico, the FOR-UNM model forecasts six regional models: Albuquerque MSA, Santa Fe MSA, Las Cruces MSA, Farmington MSA, Permian Basin MSA (Lea and Eddy Counties) and non-metro New Mexico (the entire state of New Mexico minus the five metro areas). After forecasting those regions, the results are analyzed to obtain a forecast for the entire Land of Enchantment.
Subscription Options:
Full Subscription subscribers of the forecast receive:
• Quarterly updates (February, May, August, November).
• Outlooks on the national economy in addition to the large focuse on the state's economy.
• Breakouts for each of the major metropolitan areas - Albuquerque, Farmington, Las Cruces, Permian Basin (Lea and Eddy County), Santa Fe and non-Metro.
• Forecast variables include industry employment, income, labor force, oil & gas production, commercial and residential building permits and other leading indicators.
• Includes historical and five-year forecast data spreadsheet (XLS) on quarterly, annual and fiscal year time step.
• Includes complete forecast publication in electronic and hard-copy formats.
• Quarterly meetings with in-depth discussion of findings, Q&A session and relevant guest speaker presentations.
Cost is $7,500 annually.
Corporate Subscriptions include:
• All of the options in the full subscription.
• One-on-one access to BBER's Director for data and analysis targeted to your needs.
• Login for database access to multiple data sets as selected.
• Name recognition and logo on BBER website with active link to your site.
• Logo on promotional fliers and other materials as appropriate.
Cost is $25,000 annually.
Snapshot Subscription subscribers of the forecast receive:
• Quarterly updates (February, May, August, November).
• Brief outlooks on the national and state economy.
• Limited breakout for each of the major metropolitan areas - Albuquerque, Farmington, Las Cruces, Permian Basin (Lea and Eddy County), Santa Fe and non-Metro.
• Forecast variables include personal income, employment, civilian labor force, and unemployment rate.
• Includes historical and two-year forecast data on quarterly and annual time step.
• Publication in electronic format only.
Cost is $1,000 annually.
Please email [email protected] or call 505-277-2216 for details on forecast variables or to subscribe.
